Articles
Breitenstein, Sofia; Rodon, Toni; Riambau, Guillem; Rodilla, Andreu (2025) Unpacking the rural–urban divide: Identities and stereotypes, Electoral Studies, 96. 
Abstract
The resurgence of the rural–urban divide as a factor shaping political attitudes has gained increasing attention in both public and academic discourse. Although often framed in terms of social identities, less is known about whether people actually express rural or urban identities in their own terms. This study investigates whether rural and urban identities exist independently of other identities such as class or ideology, and how they shape perceptions of in-groups and out-groups. Drawing on open-ended survey responses from a representative sample in Spain – a context where the rural–urban divide has gained political relevance – we use a novel text analysis approach to examine how individuals describe the groups they identify with. Findings show that rural–urban identities surface only marginally without explicit prompting, while identities tied to age, ideology, and education are more salient. When primed, some stereotypical traits emerge: rural communities are associated with nature and a relaxed lifestyle, while urban ones are linked to stress and individualism. A more uniform and stereotyped view of rural areas also appears across both rural and urban respondents.
Rodon, Toni, Raya, Josep Maria; Llaneza, Catalina (2025) UnfAirbnb! The Effect of Short-Term Letting on Electoral Behaviour, Political Studies. Abstract
Over the last few years, short-term lets or home sharing have radically changed the dynamics of mass tourism and triggered disruptive consequences for civic, social and economic life. While lucrative for some, it has also impacted the character of different urban areas, creating significant changes to the local economy and often triggering citizens’ discontent. While previous works have focused on the economic and urban effects of short-term letting, much less is known about the electoral impact of the ‘Airbnb phenomenon’. Does it lead to a higher propensity to vote for certain parties? Using detailed geographic data on Airbnb locations in Barcelona and geo-located individual-level surveys, this article examines the effect of short-term letting on electoral behaviour. We contend that short-term letting can become a mobilising issue for political entrepreneurs. Our analysis shows that areas with a higher concentration of Airbnbs were more likely to vote for the party that campaigned in favour of restrictive home-sharing regulations. This study has important implications for our understanding of the interplay between urban management, housing, protest and vote choice.
Astudillo, Javier; Rodon, Toni (2025) Democracy or discord? how citizens judge contested party leadership races. Democratization, 1–22. Abstract
In this article we challenge the belief that citizens are ultimately responsible for the dilemma political parties may face between selecting their leaders democratically and attracting votes. This belief arises from the notion that citizens reject parties whose leaders are chosen through competitive processes, associating competition with division and division with incapacity. We suggest, however, that citizens perceive contested leadership races as either divisive and thus negative, or alternatively, democratic and thus positive, depending on the inclusiveness of the selectorate. Using a conjoint experimental design, we partially confirm our expectations. Our key finding is that competitive races, although perceived as divisive, are never electorally detrimental. When conducted through primaries, they may even yield positive electoral effects. This outcome remains robust even after accounting for the ideological positions of both parties and citizens. We conclude that if a dilemma exists between intra-party democracy and electoral success, citizens are not to blame.
Unan, Asli; Klüver, Heike; Hobolt, Sara; Rodon, Toni (2025) The political effects of communicative interventions during crises, European Journal of Political Research, 64: 2039-2050. Abstract
Can communicative interventions by the government influence political trust and increase public compliance during crises? This study examines the impact of a televised speech by German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using an unexpected-events-during-survey-design, we find that the speech led to a 7-percentage point increase in trust in the federal government and up to a 25-percentage point decrease in citizens' mobility. We also observe demographic variation in susceptibility to speech. We explore the underlying mechanisms by comparing Merkel's speech with similar televised addresses by Mark Rutte and Boris Johnson, where we observe no comparable effects on attitudes. We suggest that specific content, such as an emphasis on solidarity and positive sentiment, may have played a role in mobilizing public support. Our findings indicate that effective leader communication can be a powerful tool for sustaining public support and ensuring compliance with crisis measures.
Herbig, Lisa; Unan, Asli; Kuhn, Theresa; Rodríguez, Irene; Rodon, Toni; Klüver, Heike (2025) Closed borders, closed minds? COVID-related border closures, EU support and hostility towards immigrants, European Journal of Political Research, 64: 1923-1944 Abstract
Do border closures affect political attitudes? While a large body of research has discussed the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on nationalism and outgroup hostility, much less is known about how one of the main policy responses to stop the virus, closing the national borders, has impacted political attitudes. We argue that the sudden and unprecedented closures of national borders in the COVID-19 crisis decreased EU support and increased hostility towards immigrants. These closures signalled that people from across the border are a threat to public health and showed little trust in European governance. We have collected fine-grained regional data on COVID-19-related border closures in Germany that we matched with survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. We rely on a difference-in-differences design to estimate the causal effect of closed borders on European identity and outgroup hostility. While we find that border closures decrease EU support and increase hostility towards immigrants, these effects fade away relatively quickly. Hence, our study suggests that border closures have only limited impact on political attitudes. Our findings have important implications for the growing literature on border politics in the EU and elsewhere.
Vall-Prat, Pau; Rodon, Toni (2025) Working For Democracy: Poll Officers and the Turnout Gender Gap. British Journal of Political Science, 55. Abstract
What factors contribute to closing the turnout gender gap after female enfranchisement? In the wake of franchise expansion, we test whether being a poll officer—and hence being exposed to election management—boosted the politicisation and mobilisation of women. In the context of the Spanish Second Republic (1931–1939), we exploit a lottery that assigned recently enfranchised women to be poll officers in the first election women were allowed to vote (1933). We use an original individual-level panel database and show that women randomly selected as polling officers were as likely to participate in subsequent elections than men, while the gender turnout gap persisted among the rest. Further analyses suggest that being poll officers made women more receptive to political organisations mobilisation strategies, and their presence had positive externalities by encouraging other women to participate. Our findings highlight the potential benefits of exposure to election engineering among groups previously excluded or less engaged with democracy.
Milosav, Đorđe; Dickson, Zachary; Hobolt, Sara; Klüver, Heike; Kuhn, Theresa; Rodon, Toni (2025) The youth gender gap in support for the far right. Journal of European Public Policy, 1–25. Abstract
The 2024 European Parliament election showcased a surprising new trend. While progressive parties have traditionally done well among younger voters, it was far-right parties that enjoyed unprecedented electoral support among young voters in the 2024 EP elections. Analyzing data from the European Election Studies (EES) 2024, covering 27 countries and almost 25,000 voters, this paper shows that there is a sizable gender gap in voting for the far right. The electoral success of far-right parties among young voters is primarily driven by the support of young men, peaking at over 21% of all young men in 2024 compared to only about 14% among women of the same age cohort. Descriptive analyses from the EES shows that this gap can partially be explained by attitudinal differences, with young women holding more socially progressive views than young men. Age-Period-Cohort models based on EES data covering eight elections from 1989 to 2024 further reveal that this gender gap is greatest for Millennials and Generation Z. Since political attitudes and voting behaviour during the formative years may have a long-lasting effect on voting patterns and attitudes later in life, our findings have important implications for the future of European democracies.
Rodríguez, Irene; Rodon, Toni; Unan, Asli; Herbig, Lisa; Klüver, Heike; Kuhn, Theresa (2025) Benchmarking pandemic response: How the UK’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout impacted diffuse and specific support for the EU, British Journal of Political Science, 55. Abstract
Does the EU’s performance compared to neighboring countries influence public support? Using a benchmarking approach, we argue that people compare their country’s performance within the EU to that of a non-EU country, shaping their attitudes. The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in 2020 provides an ideal test case, as governments launched vaccination programs at different speeds. The UK began weeks before EU countries, allowing us to examine its impact on EU support. Using an Unexpected Event during Surveys Design (UESD) with Eurobarometer data, we find that the UK’s early rollout significantly reduced specific policy support for the EU but did not consistently affect diffuse support. Our findings offer key insights into attitudes toward European integration and performance evaluations.
Rodon, Toni; Guinjoan, Marc; Ioannidis, Nikandros (2025) Electoral and partisan consequences of sovereignty referendum outcomes: A comparative analysis, Party Politics. Abstract
What are the electoral consequences of winning a sovereignty referendum? While some argue that these referendums increase the electoral power of pro-sovereignty parties or even put in motion a slippery slope towards more (radical) demands, others sustain that sovereignty-related referendums are a “once in a generation” event, decrease the salience of territorial politics and hence the electoral appeal of pro-decentralisation parties. We put these narratives to the test using the newly compiled CONREF dataset, which includes comprehensive information on the type of sovereignty referendums, the party electoral outcomes before and after the referendum and their policy position. Our analysis shows no relationship between winning a sovereignty referendum and parties’ electoral fortunes. It also shows that referendums do not affect the territorial position of the parties–irrespective of the referendum outcome. If anything, we observe that the main party in the winner’s block loses support when the referendum passes for a small margin and that the opposition benefits when their side wins. In addition, looking at the EU referendums, we observe that when the position of anti-EU parties wins they become less Eurosceptic. Overall, our article improves our understanding of the dynamics of the winner-loser effects in sovereignty referendums and its spillovers to elections.
Sánchez-García, Álvaro; Rodon, Toni; Delgado, Maria (2024) Where has everyone gone? Depopulation and voting behaviour in Spain, European Journal of Political Research, 64(1): 296-319. Abstract
In many European countries, people increasingly leave rural or small municipalities to live and work in urban or metropolitan environments. Although previous work on the ‘left behind’ places has examined the relationship between the rural–urban divide and vote choice, less is known about how depopulation affects electoral behaviour. Is there a relationship between experiencing a loss in population and support for the different parties? We investigate this question by examining the Spanish case, a country where the topic of depopulation has become a salient issue in political competition. Using a newly compiled dataset, we also explore whether the relationship between depopulation and electoral returns is moderated by municipality size, local compositional changes, the loss of public services and changes in amenities. Our findings show that depopulated municipalities give higher support to the main Conservative party, mainly in small municipalities. Yet, municipalities on the brink of disappearance are more likely to give larger support to the far-right. Results overall show that the effect of depopulation seems to be driven by compositional changes, and not as a result of losing public services or a deterioration of the vibrancy of the town. Our findings have important implications for our understanding of the relationship between internal migration and electoral behaviour.
Rodon, Toni; Rodríguez, Irene (2024) A bitter victory and a sweet defeat: the July 2023 Spanish general election, South European Society and Politics, 28(3), 335–357. Abstract
This article examines the outcome of the July 2023 election in Spain. Despite the right- and far-right bloc winning a higher share of the votes, the two main incumbent parties on the left (PSOE and Sumar) defeated the odds and returned to government thanks to a post-election agreement with six other parties, including the Catalan pro-independence political formations. We show how coordination in the left bloc was important in shaping the outcome. An increase in mobilisation and strategic voting across districts contributed to preventing the right-wing bloc from achieving an absolute majority of seats.
Vall-Prat, Pau; Rodon, Toni (2024) The Spanish 2023 general elections: unexpected snap elections to survive in power, West European Politics, 47(3): 1419-1434. Abstract
The 2023 Spanish general election was a snap election called unexpectedly by the PM Pedro Sánchez the day after the local and regional elections in May 2023. Turnout was higher than expected (66.6%) and the result confirmed the high degree of multi-dimensional polarisation in Spanish society. Right-wing parties improved their position: the mainstream conservative PP increased its support mainly at the expense of Ciudadanos and the far-right VOX. Yet, parties on the left, especially the incumbent PSOE, performed better than predicted by polls and, together with the seats won by regional parties, were able to keep a dominant position in Congress. A left-wing minority coalition cabinet was ultimately formed with two parties in government (PSOE and Sumar) and the parliamentary support of several regional parties. Parliamentary support was reached after an agreement that includes decentralisation measures and an amnesty to repair the judiciary consequences of the 2017 independence referendum in Catalonia, which showcases the multilevel and multidimensional complexity of Spanish politics.
Rodon, Toni; Kent, Jonathan (2023) Geographies of EU dissatisfaction. Does spatial segregation between natives and migrants erode the EU, Journal of European Public Policy, 31(6): 1675–1692. Abstract
This article examines whether the spatial segregation of immigrant groups conditions the relationship between the share of migrants and attitudes towards EU integration. Do varying degrees of clustering of migrants in space diminish, mitigate or exacerbate the effect of immigration on EU attitudes? We combine data from the European Social Survey with fine-grain spatial segregation measures captured by the D4I project across four European Union countries. We find that those who live in regions with a greater share of migrants from Eastern Europe have more positive attitudes towards the EU but that this positive influence diminishes in highly segregated areas. The analysis also shows that the effect is primarily driven by the working class. Our findings have important implications as they show that the joint consideration of both the levels and the distribution of migrants in space is crucial to understanding the relationship between immigration and attitudes towards the EU.
Rodon, Toni (2022) The Scars of Violence and Repression on Founding Elections: Evidence from Spain, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 41(1): 47-71. Abstract
Do violence during a civil war and its aftermath leave a mark on political behaviour? In this article I study how violence perpetrated by the left and repression by the right during and after the Spanish Civil War shaped vote choice and turnout in 1977, in the first legislative election after a 40 year dictatorship. I argue that the effect of repression travels over time when actions are perpetrated by clearly identifiable antagonistic actors. By using a dataset that captures the intensity and the type of violence, results indicate that repression perpetrated by the Francoist dictatorship during and after the conflict had a positive and significant effect on left-wing support in 1977. Results are consistent across different indicators, such as religious violence, distance to mass graves or sanctions to teachers, confirming that violence triggered greater support for the political left. In contrast, results show no relationship between repression and turnout.
Rodon, Toni; Tormos, Raül (2022) The Burden of a Violent Past: Formative Experiences of Repression and Support for Secession in Catalonia, British Journal of Political Science, 1-12. Abstract
This letter studies the impact of past violence and repression on current territorial preferences in a contemporary democracy. Does a violent past lay the grounds for pro-secessionist preferences, or does it lead individuals to cling on to the territorial status quo? We study whether exposure to the events of the Spanish Civil War and its immediate aftermath made people more or less likely to support Catalan secession from Spain. Our analysis employs a dataset that combines a large N of individual-level survey data with historical data about repression and violence in each Catalan municipality. Findings indicate that current preferences for secession tend to diminish among the oldest Catalan generation that was exposed to higher levels of violence in their municipality. Most crucially, we show that exposure to violence created a sense of apathy towards politics among the oldest cohort, which eventually leads to a lower predisposition to support secession, a feeling that was not transmitted to subsequent generations. Our findings qualify some of the existing knowledge on the effects of past political violence on present political attitudes.
Rodon, Toni (2022) Affective and territorial polarisation: the impact on vote choice in Spain, South European Society and Politics. Abstract
What is the effect of affective polarisation on vote choice? Despite the growing interest in affective polarisation, scholars still do not fully understand the relationship between partisan affective polarisation and political behaviour. Crucially, most existing studies have assumed, often by default, that affective polarisation mainly occurs along a single politicised partisan identity. This article addresses the hitherto neglected relationship between affective polarisation and vote choice in Spain, where distrust between different and opposite groups occurs both on ideological and territorial terms. Using rich panel data, the study findings show that both affective polarisation types are significant predictors of vote choice. While affectively partisan-polarised voters are more likely to support the left, affectively polarised voters on the territorial dimension are more likely to support the right.
Amat, Francesc; Rodon, Toni (2021) Institutional Commitment Problems and Regional Autonomy: The Catalan Case, Politics and Governance, 9(4): 439-452. Abstract
This article examines what constitutional arrangements are more likely to facilitate the transfer of effective decision-making power to the regional level. We show that certain constitutional arrangements can result in institutional commitment problems between regional minority and national majority groups, which in turn influence levels of regional autonomy across regions. Specifically, we examine how the depth and scope of decentralization depend on the presence of federal agreements and the availability of institutional guarantees that make the federal contracts credible. Analyzing regional-level data, we show that regions where identity minority groups are majoritarian enjoy more regional autonomy when the commitment problem has resulted in a satisfactory national accommodation. Our findings highlight two important scenarios. The first occurs when the institutional commitment problem is solved, and regional minority groups are granted substantial levels of regional autonomy. The second scenario takes place when the commitment problem is not institutionally accommodated, and hence regional minority groups have systematically lower levels of autonomy. This article illustrates that both federal contracts and credible agreements are important tools to understand regional decision-making powers.
Rodon, Toni (2021) Caught in the middle? How voters react to spatial indifference, Electoral Studies, 73. Abstract
According to one of the tenets of the Spatial Theory of Voting (SToV), spatial indifference is positively associated with abstention. However, the political behaviour literature has not yet fully settled whether this is always the case and, if not, why individuals still vote despite the differential utility they extract from the two closest candidates equals zero. In this letter we explore the effect of spatial indifference on political behaviour by analysing survey data from American elections since 1972 and through a survey experiment that randomizes candidates’ ideological position on different dimensions. Findings show that spatially indifferent individuals are more likely to abstain—mainly moderate voters. Yet, around two-thirds still vote for a candidate. We advance two tentative explanations: First, when spatially equidistant, individuals that vote are more likely to consider valence attributes. Second, they are more likely to resort to a directional logic. Results have implications for our understanding of the spatial models and, in particular, of the behaviour of spatially equidistant individuals, which represent a non-negligible group of the electorate.
Osnabrügge, Moritz; Hobolt, Sara B.; Rodon, Toni (2021) Playing to the Gallery: Emotive Rhetoric in Parliaments, 115(3):885-899. American Political Science Review. Abstract
Research has shown that emotions matter in politics, but we know less about when and why politicians use emotive rhetoric in the legislative arena. This article argues that emotive rhetoric is one of the tools politicians can use strategically to appeal to voters. Consequently, we expect that legislators are more likely to use emotive rhetoric in debates that have a large general audience. Our analysis covers two million parliamentary speeches held in the UK House of Commons and the Irish Parliament. We use a dictionary-based method to measure emotive rhetoric, combining the Affective Norms for English Words dictionary with word-embedding techniques to create a domain-specific dictionary. We show that emotive rhetoric is more pronounced in high-profile legislative debates, such as Prime Minister’s Questions. These findings contribute to the study of legislative speech and political representation by suggesting that emotive rhetoric is used by legislators to appeal directly to voters.
Torcal, Mariano; Rodon, Toni (2021) Zooming in on the ‘Europeanisation’ of national politics: A comparative analysis of seven EU countries, Italian Journal of Electoral Studies (IJES), 84(1): 3-29. Abstract
This article empirically revisits and tests the effect of individual distance from parties on the EU integration dimension and on the left–right dimension for vote choice in both national and European elections. This analysis is based on the unique European Election Study (EES) 2014 survey panel data from seven EU countries. Our findings show that in most countries the effect of individual distance on the EU integration dimension is positive and significant for both European and national elections. Yet the effect of this dimension is not uniform across all seven countries, revealing two scenarios: one in which it is only relevant for Eurosceptic voters and the other in which it is significant for voters of most parties in the system. The first is mainly related to the presence of a ‘hard’ Eurosceptic party in the party supply, but the second, which indicates a more advanced level of Europeanisation of party systems, is not explained by most current theoretical and empirical contributions. We conclude by proposing two additional explanations for this latter scenario in which the EU integration dimension is present for most voters in both type of elections, including those voting for the main parties. Our findings and further discussion have implications for the understanding of the Europeanisation of national politics and its relationship with vote choice.
Rodon, Toni; Guinjoan, Marc (2021) Beaten ballots: political participation dynamics amidst police interventions, Political Science & Research Methods, 10(1):153-170. Abstract
What is the effect of violence on political mobilization? Taking the repression-mobilization nexus debate as a starting point, we study the effects of police interventions on political participation, focusing on the Spanish police crackdown on Catalonia's independence referendum on 1 October 2017. We analyze the effect of police actions on turnout using detailed aggregate data, as well as a survey conducted a few days after the referendum. The two empirical approaches show that police interventions had both deterrent and inverse spatial spillover effects. Although police raids had a local negative impact on turnout, they induced positive spillover effects in the surrounding areas. Our findings also indicate heterogeneity in the spatial dynamics, with police actions encouraging people to go to vote in nearby areas, but also mobilizing residents in neighboring areas to participate, especially those individuals with fewer incentives to turn out to vote.
Hobolt, Sara; Hoerner, Julian; Rodon, Toni (2021) Having a say or getting your way? Political choice and satisfaction with democracy, European Journal of Political Research, 60: 854-873. Abstract
Citizen satisfaction with democracy is greater when parties offer choices that are congruent with voter preferences. But are citizens content with simply having a party that represents their views or does their satisfaction depend on whether that party can also be instrumental in implementing policies? We argue that instrumentality moderates the effect of ideological congruence on democratic satisfaction. Combining an analysis of cross-national survey data with an experimental conjoint design, we find that citizens able to vote for a congruent party with a chance of entering government are more satisfied with democracy, whereas congruence without instrumentality has no such effect.
Escribà-Folch, Abel; Muradova, Lala H.; Rodon, Toni (2020) The Effects of Autocratic Characteristics on Public Opinion toward Democracy Promotion Policies: A Conjoint Analysis, Foreign Policy Analysis, 17(1). Abstract
Does the level of public support for democracy promotion policies vary with the characteristics of potential autocratic targets? We conduct an experimental study with a conjoint design on a sample of 1,464 US citizens that manipulates several core characteristics of potential autocratic targets. We then compare citizens’ preferences with the cross-national evidence testing the determinants of democracy promotion success. We find that respondents support the use of coercive measures (military action and sanctions) precisely in contexts where, according to comparative research, these instruments are unlikely to foster democratization: oil-rich, exclusionary, personalistic regimes with no elections, and with no ties to the United States. Conversely, the characteristics driving public support for the use of democracy aid are more consistent with those favoring effectiveness: autocratic regimes with multi-party elections and with links to the United States. These findings have important policy implications by contributing to understand the micro-foundations of target selection.
Rodon, Toni (2020) The Spanish electoral cycle of 2019: a tale of two countries, West European Politics, 43:7, 1490-1512. Abstract
In 2019 alone, Spanish citizens went to the polls at least four times – two general elections, European elections, local elections and, for some, regional elections. Moreover, in the 2016–19 legislature, the country witnessed a successful vote of no confidence that replaced a Conservative prime minister with a Socialist one; experienced an important constitutional crisis over the 2017 referendum on Catalan independence; observed the emergence for the first time of a viable far-right party; and ended with the first coalition government in the modern democratic history. The November 2019 election, the last in this long electoral cycle, left a fragmented and polarized political landscape and a left-wing cabinet – PSOE and Podemos – that does not have a majority in the chamber. This article presents the background, the results of the different elections and discusses how and why Spanish politics experienced a radical transformation likely to have an impact in the next years.
Guinjoan, Marc; Rodon, Toni (2021) Let’s party! The impact of local festivities on the incumbent’s electoral support, Local Government Studies, 47:5, 712-734. Abstract
Do local festivities affect an incumbent’s re-election prospects? Despite the relationship between local public policies and political behaviour is a central topic in political science, the effect of the organisation of leisure events on voting patterns has been largely neglected. Using data from Spain, we show that Mayors doubling the per capita amount of money devoted to local festivities during the last year of the legislature benefit by around two per cent points in upcoming elections. Two mechanisms account for this relationship. First, changes in the budget given over to festivities enhance the incumbent’s support when the spending on local festivities during the previous years of the mandate was generous. Second, local festivities bring about positive rewards when the financial situation of the municipality is stable. Overall, our article sheds light on the need to consider other domains beyond “core” public policies when assessing the dynamics behind an incumbent’s re-election.
Hobolt, Sara; Rodon, Toni (2020) Cross-cutting issues and electoral choice. EU issue voting in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum, Journal of European Public Policy, 27(2): 227-245. Abstract
As political competition is becoming increasingly multi-dimensional in Europe, voters often face the challenge of choosing which issues matter most to them. The European integration issue presents a particular difficulty for voters, since it is not closely aligned to the left-right dimension. We test the impact of the EU issue in the first parliamentary election following the UK's divisive Brexit referendum. We argue that while the EU issue was salient to voters, EU issue voting was inhibited by the indistinct and ambiguous positions adopted by the two major parties. To examine this, we combine an analysis of British Election Study data from the 2017 General Election with a conjoint experiment that allows us to present voters with a range of choices on both dimensions. Our findings show that the EU dimension has the potential to become a cross-cutting dimension that rivals the left-right dimension in British electoral politics, but this crucially depends on party competition.
Hobolt, Sara; Rodon, Toni (2020) Domestic Contestation of the European Union, Journal of European Public Policy, 27(2): 161-167. Abstract
The lack of a European public sphere has been regarded an important part of the EU’s democratic deficit (see e.g., Habermas Citation2003; Hix Citation2013). Yet, after decades of scholars and commentators bemoaning the limited politicization of the EU nationally, European issues have come to dominate domestic electoral politics. In the words of Habermas, political debates have become increasingly ‘synchronized’ across Europe. From the Eurozone crisis to the struggle of dealing with growing numbers of migrants and refuges entering Europe, EU-wide issues now occupy a salient part of the domestic political debate. European citizens have become more aware of the EU as both part of the problem and the solution when it comes to major public policy concerns...
Hoerner, Julian M.; Jaax, Alexander; Rodon, Toni (2019) The long-term impact of the location of concentration camps on radical-right voting in Germany, Research and Politics, 6(4): 1-18. Abstract
Of all atrocities committed by state actors in 20th century Europe, the systematic killings by Nazi Germany were arguably the most severe and best documented. While several studies have investigated the impact of the presence of concentration camps on surrounding communities in Germany and the occupied territories in terms of redistribution of wealth and property, the local-level impact on voting behaviour has not yet been explored. We investigated the impact of spatial proximity to a concentration camp between 1933 and 1945 on the likelihood of voting for far-right parties in the 2013 and 2017 federal elections. We find that proximity to a former concentration camp is associated with a higher vote share of such parties. A potential explanation for this finding could be a ‘memory satiation effect’, according to which voters who live in close proximity to former camps and are more frequently confronted with the past are more receptive to revisionist historical accounts questioning the centrality of the Holocaust in the German culture of remembrance.
Amat, Francesc; Boix, Carles; Muñoz, Jordi; Rodon, Toni (2020) From Political Mobilization to Electoral Participation: Turnout in Barcelona in the 1930s, The Journal of Politics, 82(4): 1559-1575. Abstract
This article examines the process of electoral mobilization that follows the extension of voting rights to low-income citizens. We take advantage of a historically unique panel data set of official registers that includes individual voting roll calls as well as individual demographics of almost 25,000 electors in Barcelona in the 1930s, matched with relevant precinct-level socioeconomic, political, and geographical data. We show that voting was driven by the direct mobilization strategies developed by political parties and by those social organizations, such as trade unions, that encompassed an important part of society. This was the case especially among unskilled workers and in areas with a high density of working-class voters. We also show that turnout was shaped by indirect channels, such as the social networks in which partisan ideas and organizations were embedded. To identify the mobilizing effects of organizations, we rely on a variety of strategies, including a sharp, short-term change in an anarchist trade union’s electoral strategies.
Wiertz, Dingeman; Rodon, Toni (2019) Frozen or Malleable? Political Ideology in the Face of Job Loss and Unemployment, Socio-Economic Review. Abstract
To what degree do people adjust their political ideology in response to job loss? To answer this question, we draw on Dutch panel data over the period 2007–2016, paying special attention to the potential moderating role of various personal circumstances. We find that, on average, job loss triggers a leftward ideological response. Although small in size, this shock effect persists when people remain unemployed or find new employment, yet in the longer run it wears off. Furthermore, we find that job loss prompts a bigger shift to the left when people are simultaneously confronted with a major drop in household income, when they have fewer financial resources to serve as a buffer, and when they are more pessimistic about the economy. While we also observe many people who revise their ideology to the right during our study window, these rightward shifts do not seem driven by job loss experiences.
Rodon, Toni; Sanjaume-Calvet, Marc (2019) How fair is it? An experimental study of perceived fairness of distributive policies, The Journal of Politics, 82(1): 384-391. Abstract
How do people evaluate fairness of redistributive policies when redistribution is considered multidimensional? We estimate the effect of distributive policies on the top- and bottom-income groups, as well as the effects of general wealth, social mobility, and origin of wealth on people’s perceived fairness of the policies. Findings reveal that policies that encourage upward social mobility and an increase in general wealth and reward effort and upward mobility are seen as fair. Yet, what is seen as fair or unfair differs substantially across party and income groups. Policies that promote an increase of the status of the wealthiest, and policies that do not change or deteriorate the status of the poorest, generate different fairness perceptions. But there is room for agreement, as policies that make the poorest wealthier, while keeping the status of the wealthiest, are seen as fair by both Democrats and Republicans and among high- and low-income individuals.
Cuadras-Morató, Xavier; Bel, Germà; Rodon, Toni (2019) Crisis? What Crisis? Economic recovery and support for independence in Catalonia, Regional Science Policy & Practice, 1-16. Abstract
Many political commentators and politicians claim that the effects of the Great Recession account for the surge in support for independence in Catalonia. However, available evidence does not point to a significant role having been played by the economic crisis in this political process. To enhance our understanding of the potential effects of changing economic conditions, we extend our analysis to the subsequent period, when economic recovery had taken place in Catalonia. Even in this very different economic scenario, the same results are found: that is, no evidence of a systematic relationship between changes in economic variables and variations in support for independence.
Cuadras-Morató, Xavier; Rodon, Toni (2018) The dog that didn’t bark: on the effect of the Great Recession on the surge of secessionism, Ethnic and Racial Studies, 42(12): 2189-2208. Abstract
This paper explores the relationship between the economic turmoil generated by the Great Recession and the increase of secessionism. Some authors have stressed that the Great Recession triggered changes in territorial preferences and, in the context of a conflict between the centre and the periphery, fuelled secessionism as a radical shift of the institutional setup. Nevertheless, other researchers have remarked that a recession may enhance the status quo bias and decrease the likelihood of changes. Our paper aims at contributing to this debate by analysing the case of Catalonia. We use an aggregate and an individual-level empirical design to explore the relationship between the deterioration of the economic situation and the increase of preferences for secession among the Catalan population. The findings from the analysis of our empirical models do not support the hypothesis that the effects of the Great Recession had any significant impact on political preferences in Catalonia.
Rodon, Toni; Guinjoan, Marc (2018) When the context matters: Identity, secession and the spatial dimension in Catalonia, Political Geography, 63: 75-87. Abstract
Regional and national identities are significant determinants of people's support for secession. Most previous works, however, have implicitly assumed that national identity has a linear unconditional effect. We complement previous works by showing that the relationship between identity and support for secession changes as a function of the context in which an individual interacts, an effect particularly important among those with mixed national and regional identities. The first stage of our empirical analysis is based on a pool of 22,000 individuals in the context of Catalonia (Spain). Findings confirm that dual-identity individuals are especially affected by their immediate surroundings: the probability to vote in favour of independence among them substantially increases when the percentage of people speaking Catalan increases. On a second stage, we explore the existence of a social interaction mechanism by employing a survey that measures the preferences of people's close networks. We show that individual's interaction in like-minded networks modifies the relationship between identity and secession, with the effect being again strong among dual-identity individuals. This group is six times more likely to vote for secession when having only pro-secession close contacts, as compared to having none. These results have implications for studies on regionalism and preferences for territorial decentralization.
Rodon, Toni; Guinjoan, Marc (2018) Mind the Protest Gap: The Role of Resources in the Face of Economic Hardship, PS: Political Science & Politics, 51(1): 84-92. Abstract
The 2008 financial and economic crisis sparked significant protests across the globe. From the “indignados” movement in Spain to civil unrest in Greece to mass mobilization in Iceland, protests came to the fore. The severity of economic collapse, especially across European countries, created shared and emotionally charged opportunities for protest mobilization, bringing citizens onto the streets and encouraging different—old and new—modes of protest...
Vall-Prat, Pau; Rodon, Toni (2017) Decentralization and Regional Cabinet Size: the Spanish Case (1979-2015). West European Politics, 40(4): 717-740. Abstract
This article explores under what conditions regional governments tend to have larger or smaller cabinets. The main contention is that cross-regional variation in cabinet size is partly explained by the dynamics set up by the multilevel system of government, mainly territorial decentralisation, multilevel government (in)congruence or the existence of nationally distinct regions. The hypotheses are tested with a new and original dataset built upon the Spanish case (1979–2015). Findings show that regions with more welfare state policies, especially when the region’s economic capacity is high, and nationally distinct regions tend to have bigger executives. In contrast, decentralisation in the form of basic state functions and government incongruence do not have a significant effect. Results have important implications for our understanding of sub-national territorial institutions and their interaction with decentralisation dynamics.
Orriols, Lluís; Rodon, Toni (2016) The 2015 Catalan Election: The Independence Bid at the Polls. South European Society and Politics, 21(3): 359-381. Abstract
This paper examines the context, campaign and main determinants of how Catalans voted in the 2015 regional election. The elections were exceptional because the incumbent and the remaining Catalan nationalist parties framed the contest as a de facto referendum on secession. In this paper we scrutinise whether attitudes towards independence affected vote choice and whether they eclipsed other traditional significant vote-driving factors such as the state of the economy or government performance. Results show that, although the independence issue became a major determinant of vote choice, the elections did not become a pure plebiscite on secession, since voters also used their vote to hold the regional government accountable for its past performance.
Rodon, Toni; Hierro, Maria José (2016) Podemos and Ciudadanos Shake up the Spanish Party System: The 2015 Local and Regional Elections. South European Society and Politics, 21(3): 339-357. Abstract
With a very high unemployment rate but at the first stage of a timid economic recovery, Spain held regional and local elections in May 2015. The election results showed the fall of traditional parties and the emergence of new forces and citizens’ platforms, which increased the fragmentation of the party system. The PP (Partido Popular – Popular Party) continued to be the most voted-for party but post-election agreements brought the left to power in eight of the 14 regions that held elections, ending four years of conservative general dominance. After commenting on the context, the campaign and the results of the elections, this article explores the main characteristics of the new party competition and examines the profile of those voting for new political alternatives.
Guinjoan, Marc; Rodon, Toni (2016) A scrutiny of the Linz-Moreno question. Publius: The Journal of Federalism. 46(1): 128-142. Abstract
In this research note we delve into the Linz-Moreno question—one of the most employed measures of national and regional identity in political science—by analzsing three different assumptions that the indicator relies upon: First, we test whether this instrument captures a negative linear trend between identities. Second, we examine whether the Linz-Moreno question also captures identity intensity. Third, we focus on the middle-identity category and examine whether it encapsulates people’s dual sense of belonging where there are two different national identities. Using data from the Making Electoral Democracy Work Project for the Spanish/Catalan case, we show that the Linz-Moreno question meets the assumptions of linearity, intensity, and the meaning of the role of the central category when capturing Catalan identity feelings. However, it fails to capture Spanish identity intensity and preferences, which over-represents the dual-identity middle category. Our empirical findings have crucial consequences for researchers working in the field of national/regional identities.
Torcal, Mariano; Rodon, Toni; Hierro, Ma José (2016) Word on the Street: The Persistence of Leftist-dominated Protest in Europe. West European Politics, 39(2): 326-350. Abstract
Classic studies of protest politics have traditionally defended the dominant left-wing orientation of protesters. However, some recent research has highlighted the general spread of protest by the increasing participation of right-wing individuals. Has this process meant an ‘ideological normalisation’ of protesters? The present article tackles this question by examining competing hypotheses regarding the relationship between ideology and political protest. Through a hierarchical multilevel design, the article tests whether left-wing (or right-wing) supporters are more likely to stay at home when left-wing (right-wing) parties are in power and whether they intensify their protest activities when they are more distant from the government’s ideological position. The article shows that left-wing individuals protest more under right-wing governments than under left-wing governments and yet, they are the group which protest the most also under left-wing governments. Both party mobilisation and values appear to be behind these individuals' greater propensity to participate regardless of the governments' ideological orientation.
Verge, Tània; Guinjoan, Marc; Rodon, Toni (2015) Risk aversion, gender and constitutional change. Politics & Gender, 11(3): 499-521. Abstract
Independence movements are today present in several stateless territorially concentrated nations, irrespective of their level of self-government. Among advanced industrial democracies, the stronger secessionist movements are found in Belgium, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom (Keating 1996; Sorens 2005). In the absence of a secession clause in their respective constitutions, a broad array of political parties and civil society groups have mobilized to demand a self-determination referendum as a means to let the citizenry of their territories express their will (Muñoz and Guinjoan 2013). Canada held a referendum on the secession of Quebec in 1980 and 1995. The United Kingdom called a popular vote on Scotland's independence in September 2014. In the Spanish case, Catalonia convoked a consultation in November 2014, although the central government did not recognize its legality.
Rodon, Toni (2015) When the kingmaker stays home: Revisiting the Ideological Bias on Turnout. Party Politics, 27(2): 177-196. Abstract
After reviewing the theoretical underpinnings behind the ‘conventional wisdom’ that voters on the left abstain more, this article critically assesses the traditional approach of the so-called ideological bias on turnout. By compiling a new large dataset (197 country elections in Europe), this paper shows that centrist abstention is higher than leftist or rightist abstention. The analysis reveals that a society’s ideological turnout bias reflects its socioeconomic context (traditional explanation), but also that party strategies play a key role. Most importantly, results show that convergence towards the centre triggers a higher centrist abstention. Additionally, this article demonstrates that both socioeconomic and partisan factors have heterogeneous effects across ideological positions. These findings critically challenge prior understanding of the ideological bias on turnout and the impact of parties’ election strategies when pursuing the key centre voter.
Rodon, Toni (2014) Do all Roads Lead to the Centre? The Unresolved Dilemma of Centrist Self-Placement. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 27(2): 177-196. Abstract
Why do people locate themselves on the center? Despite being the most popular position of the left–right axis and playing an important role in party competition, centrist location is still a mystery. This article groups together and investigates the hypotheses behind this crucial position and reveals the motives of centrist self-location in 21 European countries. The empirical analysis reveals a novel insight of importance to ideological self-placement: Centrist self-placement is mainly a product of individuals’ voting patterns and their lack of political sophistication. Results also show that the importance of these factors varies across countries. Findings in this article have implications for our understanding of the left–right axis and its role in party competition.
Rodon, Toni; Núria Franco-Guillén (2014). Contact with immigrants in times of crisis: An exploration of the Catalan case, Ethnicities, 14(5): 650-675. Abstract
Contact theory and threat group theory offer contradictory hypothesis regarding the effect of contact with immigrants. Does contact reduce or increases negative attitudes towards immigration? This article integrates both approaches and tests the effect of contact towards immigrants when different contexts are considered. We investigate the effect of the economic environment and the immigrant group size on modifying attitudes towards immigration in the context of Catalonia, which offers a complex environment where traditional hypotheses can be tested. Results show that close contact and family contact with immigrants reduce prejudices. However, mixed results are reported regarding the effect of the economic environment or the immigrant group size. Findings also show that Catalan identity is related to lower levels of negative attitudes towards immigrants, regardless of having experienced contact with foreigners. Results have implications on the impact of context when dealing with the impact of contact on attitudes towards immigration.
Astudillo, Javier; Rodon, Toni (2013) El comportamiento electoral del votante en la mediana y las “paradojas” de la competición electoral española, Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 144:3-21. Abstract
Focusing on the 2000, 2008 and 2011 Spanish elections, this paper provides three contributions to the literature on electoral competition from a Downsian perspective. Firstly, an answer is offered to the three paradoxes that arise when applying the basic proximity vote model to electoral competition in Spain. Secondly, a more solid theoretical and empirical grounding is provided for the existing proposals to integrate non-positional issues into the Downsian model. Finally, a type of logistic regression is employed which is more appropriate for understanding the behaviour of the median voter, whose role is crucial in Spanish election results. Our fi ndings have important implications in understanding the workings of one of the most commonly used models in political science.
Guinjoan, Marc; Rodon, Toni (2013). Beyond identities: Political Determinants of Support for Decentralization in Contemporary Spain, Regional and Federal Studies, 24(1): 21-41. Abstract
Support for decentralization has generally been considered an outcome derived from the existence of regional or subnational identities. A recent complementary explanation has highlighted the role of politics to create regionally orientated support. We combine these two explanations by studying what determines the support for decentralization in Spain, an almost unique case where these two approaches can be tested. Using a hierarchical model, we show that in those regions without a different subnational identity, some citizens develop regionally orientated support because of their wish to bring the administration closer to the citizens and because their preferred party is pushing for further decentralization. In addition, we highlight the importance of considering decentralization as an outcome derived from party dynamics, which are able to shape political attitudes towards decentralization.
Klüver, Heike; Rodon, Toni (2013). Explaining policy position choice of Europarties: The effect of legislative resources, British Journal of Political Science, 43, 3, 629-650. Abstract
While Europarties have received increasing attention in recent years, little is known about how they arrive at common policy positions, given their strong internal ideological heterogeneity. In order to explain position formation within Europarties, this article argues that national parties compete with each other in an attempt to upload their own policy positions to their Europarty. The article hypothesizes that their ability to succeed in these attempts depends on their legislative resources. The argument is tested by analysing position formation within the four major Europarties for all European Parliament elections between 1979 and 2004. The empirical results confirm that position choice is skewed towards parties with a large seat share, which has important implications for political representation in Europe.
Rodon, Toni (2009) El sesgo de participación en el sistema electoral español, Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 126, 107-125. Abstract
The manipulation of the Spanish electoral system carried out by the political elites that led the political transition has been proved by several studies. This manipulation moves through the existence of a large number of low-magnitude districts and its interaction with malapportionment, the Hondt formula and, above all, the variance effect of district magnitudes. In this paper I will discuss another bias that has not yet been studied by researchers, and which also paved the way for UCD victories: the turnout bias. I will show how the manipulation of the electoral system led UCD to win systematically in the districts where there was low turnout and how its opponents won in districts with high turnout. Therefore the «price» of the seats for UCD was lower. This bias has remained and it favours those parties that have support in the districts with low turnout which are, at the same time, more overrepresented.
